B&W Trades both long and short early Jan 2016

The B&W system has not been featured prominently over the past year. However, it continues to fire off winning trade entry signals on all markets, on all time frames.

The charts, trades and results below show the NQ traded on a 6 tick range bar chart:  both long and short using the B&W uptrend buy 1st and B&W downtrend sell 1st signals, from the start of the 2016 trading year 5th Jan 2016  until  21:00 Gmt on the 13th of January 2016.

Both long and short strategies were run separately but simultaneously, normally only one strategy would be in a position, however on occasions both strategies had active positions

One NQ futures contract was bought or sold on each trade entry. There was no pyramiding or optimisation of signal parameters , trade targets or stops.

Each trade ran until it is stopped out by a hard stop, a trailing stop or a profit target.

This was not a back test.

The trades were live/real time (sim acc) so slippage is accounted for in the trade entry and exit prices .

The 6 tick range chart below, shows examples of the long and short entry signals.

B&W NQ 6T signal explain

The summary below shows the results of simultaneous application of both long and short strategies.

B&W NQ 6T strategy results

 

Displaying image.pngThe 241 real time trades that produced these results are shown below.

B&W NQ 6T trades1B&W NQ 6T trades2B&W NQ 6T trades3B&W NQ 6T trades4B&W NQ 6T trades5

B&W NQ 6T trades6

 

B&W NQ 6T trades7

 

B&W NQ 6T trades8

 $5090 profit in 7 trading days is a very pleasing result, particularly when only one contract is being traded.

Each tick on the NQ is $5 so the results shown above equate to a gain of over 1018 ticks in 7 trading days.

This can be approximated  to a gain of over 145 tick per trading day.

In anyone’s book these results are more than acceptable, particularly if the trading account size allows trading of more than one contract.

Can these results be improved upon? The answer is yes.

How?

Simple analysis of the summary show : the results of the long trades below

B&W NQ 6T strategy results long

and the results of the short trades below.

B&W NQ 6T strategy results short

 

It is obvious, in hindsight, that  trading short only would have been more profitable. As the daily NQ chart below shows the rapid decline of the NQ at  the start of the 2016 trading year.

This was one of the most bearish starts to a trading year in many a year.

The catalyst for this rapid drop in the Nasdaq (and other stock markets) we are reliably informed, was  the Chinese stock markets massive sell off’s.  The sell off’s led to the Shanghai market closing limit down on several occasions during the 1st few  trading days of Jan 2016. 

B&W NQ daily

However, was it possible to predict that short would have been the way to trade?

the short answer is no: but the slightly longer answer is that you can tip the odds in your favour if you look at a longer term time-frame than the 6 tick range bar and use the longer term chart  as a means to control/filter your trade entries.

the chart below is a 60 min chart of the NQ. On this time frame  the B&W system went into a longer term down -trend at 15:00 Gmt on the 30 Dec 2015  and remained in that longer term down-trend until 10:00 Gmt on the 12th Jan 2016.

B&W NQ 6T 60 min bias

The crux of this observation is that the market  created a bias to the downside on the hourly chart.

Given that market bias, it is wise to only trade short. The short only summary, shown above, with profits of $5955 confirms that  had short only entries been taken the gains would have been greater. So the higher probability winning trade was short.  A long trade would be counter-trend.

At 10:00 on the 12th Jan 2016 the B&W 60 minute chart changed its bias to an up-trend, at which point the higher probability winning trade became a long.

below are 2 charts showing the change of 60 minute bias from down to up (on the left hand chart) on the 12th Jan 2016 and

the long only trade entry signals (turquoise vertical lines) on the right hand 12 tick range bar chart.

B&W NQ 6T 60 min bias with range bar entry

Conclusions:

Trading both long and short B&W up-trend 1st and down trend 1st strategies simultaneously, on a 6 tick range bar can be very lucrative.

Trading a B&W  down-trend 1st sell strategy  only,  on a 6 tick range chart, when the B&W 60 minute longer term trend is down can be even more lucrative.

and Vice versa, trading a B&W  up-trend 1st buy strategy  only, on a 6 tick range chart, when the B&W 60 minute longer trend is up can also be  more lucrative than trading both long and short simultaneously.

The 60 minute NQ up-trend was short-lived and reversed at 17:00 Gmt on the 13th Jan 2016 back into a down-trend, as shown in the chart below. Bias once again should revert to short only.

B&W NQ 6T 60 min bias2

and below are the potential short entry signals on a 12 tick range bar chart of the NQ.

The strategy has and is being run on a 6 tick range bar chart but the collapse of the NQ was so severe after 17:00 Gmt on the 13th Jan 2016  that the entire fall could not fit on one screenshot using a 6 tick range chart. Accordingly, there were considerably more potential short entry points on the 6 tick range chart than shown on the 12 tick range chart below. 

B&W NQ 6T 60 min bias3

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2016 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

 

 

Update Predictor Trading Signal (daily) 28 July 2015

In the POST on 28th July 2015 I wrote:

Once again, It will be interesting to monitor these trade set-ups over the next few weeks/months and see if the entries are triggered and if so, how the trades pan out.

I was referring to the 5 Predictor buy/sell signals generated on MVG, ULTA, DBVT, COST and ANAC.

It is now almost 4 weeks since those signals were generated and this post is an update as to how the trades have panned out. As with previous posts I shall show 2 charts for each symbol.  the 1st chart is a copy of the original chart analysis and the 2nd chart is “Now” ie market close Friday 22nd August 2015.

2 charts for MVG

MVG Daily Predictor buy

MVG Up Daily Predictor buy

2 charts for ULTA

ULTA Daily Predictor sellULTA Up Daily Predictor sell

2 charts for DBVT

DVBT Daily Predictor sell

DVBT Up Daily Predictor sell

2 charts for COST

COST Daily Predictor sellCOST Up Daily Predictor sell

2 charts for ANAC

ANAC Daily Predictor sell

ANAC Up Daily Predictor sell

To summarize

Trades not triggered: MVG

Stopped out: DBVT Loss $0.97c ULTA Loss $2.89c 

Total Loss to date $ 3.86c

trades still running at a loss: none

Total  actual  loss = $3.86c

Those trades still running at a profit: COST up $7.00c ANAC up $33.00c.

Total running profit $40.00c

If all trades were closed out now, the net gain would be $36.14c( Exc fees)

 profit factor(PF) =$ win/$ loss = $40.00c/$3.86c = 10.33!!!!

given that profit factor only needs to be > 1.2 to have a winning system. The 10.33 PF shown by these 5 Predictor trades far exceeds that figure and shows what a powerful reversal  trading system the predictor signals produce. 

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

Update 2 Predictor Buy/Sell Signals 21 June 2015

In the POST on 28 July 2015 I wrote:

To summarize

Stopped out: FRED Loss $0.30c NWS Loss $0.47c CBK $0.13c 

Total Loss to date $ 0.90c

Those trades still running at a loss: BEBE down $0.06  ZQK down $0.14

Total running loss $0.20, so actual and running loss = $1.10c

Those trades still running at a profit: AGEN up $1.50c CMA up $6.00c.

Total running profit $7.50c

If all trades were closed out now, the net gain would be $6.40c( Exc fees)

 profit factor(PF) =$ win/$ loss = $7.50c/$1.10c = 6.82!!!!

Since writing the above, the 2 trades running at a loss, BEBE and ZQK have actually been stopped out for small losses.

The 2 trades running at a profit AGEN and CMA have continued to accumulate significant gains.

All 4 trades are shown below:-

BEBE Up1 Daily Predictor buy ZQK Up1 Daily Predictor buy

AGEN Up1 Daily Predictor sell CMA Up1 Daily Predictor sell

 

To summarize as of today 22 August 2015

Stopped out: FRED Loss $0.30c, NWS Loss $0.47c, CBK  loss $0.13c,   BEBE loss $0.14c, ZQK loss $0.18c.

Total Loss to date $1.22c

No trades running at a loss

Total  actual  loss = $1.22c

Those trades still running at a profit: AGEN up $2.70c, CMA up $19.36c.

Total running profit $22.07c

Despite the fact that 5 out of 7 trades got stopped out for small losses. The 2 successful trades have racked up terrific gains and have almost tripled the profit factor (PF) over the last month.

remember previously PF was 6.82  Now it is:

Profit Factor = $22.07/ $1.22 = 18.09 !!!!

The Predictor Trading system is an out and out reversal system that creates Signals in regions where price has reached extremes.

Because of this, stop losses can be set close to the entry price. This ensures losses will be small.

Yet,  targets can be set far away from the entry price allowing reward (profit) to be large.

reward to risk ratios (for Predictor Signals) are often well in excess of 6:1   (with a 6:1 r/r only 17% of trades need to be winners to be overall profitable.

With a 18:1 r/r (as demonstrated in the 7 trades covered) it requires only a 6% win rate to be overall profitable

The essence of trading is to conserve and increase your trading capital. The way to achieve this is, not to have a 90% win rate, but to ensure the profit you make on your winning trades, far exceeds the losses on your losing trades. The Predictor allows you to do just that.

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com

© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

Predictor Trading Signals (daily) 28 July 2015

The Predictor Trading System daily signal scan produced 20 Buy and 30 sell signals, today 28th July 2015.

below are a random selection of 5 of the trading instruments that have Predictor signals today. All the entry /stop/target and R/R information pertaining to the potential trades are shown on the charts.

Once again, It will be interesting to monitor these trade set-ups over the next few weeks/months and see if the entries are triggered and if so, how the trades pan out.

MVG Daily Predictor buy ULTA Daily Predictor sell DVBT Daily Predictor sell COST Daily Predictor sell ANAC Daily Predictor sell

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

Update Predictor Buy/Sell Signals from 21 June 2015

In the POST on 21 June 2015 I wrote:

“It will be interesting to monitor these trade set-ups over the next few weeks/months and see if the entries are triggered and if so, how the trades pan out.

It is now over a month since those Trading charts and signals were posted so now is an opportune moment to see what has transpired.

I will post the chart for each of the set-ups in the same sequence as they were in the 21st June 2015 post, then follow it  with the chart for today 28th July 2015,  beneath it. The comments on the 2nd of each chart show when the trades were triggered, If they have been stopped out and what the losses were. and for those trades not stopped out, what the gains would be as of today.

2 charts below for AGEN

AGEN Daily Predictor sell

AGEN Up Daily Predictor sell

 

2 charts below for FRED

FRED Daily Predictor sellFRED Up Daily Predictor sell

 

2 charts below for CMA

CMA Daily Predictor sell

CMA Up Daily Predictor sell

 

2 charts below for BEBE

 

BEBE Daily Predictor buyBEBE Up Daily Predictor buy

 

2 charts below for ZQK

ZQK Daily Predictor buy

ZQK Up Daily Predictor buy

 

2 charts below for NWS

NWS Daily Predictor buy

NWS Up Daily Predictor buy

 

2 charts below for CBK

CBK Daily Predictor buy

CBK Up Daily Predictor buy

 

To summarize

Stopped out: FRED Loss $0.30c NWS Loss $0.47c CBK $0.13c 

Total Loss to date $ 0.90c

those trades still running at a loss: BEBE down $0.06  ZQK down $0.14

Total running loss $0.20, so actual and running loss = $1.10c

Those trades still running at a profit: AGEN up $1.50c CMA up $6.00c.

Total running profit $7.50c

If all trades were closed out now, the net gain would be $6.40c( Exc fees)

 profit factor(PF) =$ win/$ loss = $7.50c/$1.10c = 6.82!!!!

given that profit factor only needs to be > 1.2 to have a winning system. The 6.82 PF shown by these 7 Predictor trades far exceeds that figure and shows what a powerful reversal  trading system the predictor signals produce. 

 

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

Trading Signals from B&W Trading System prior to Gold Crash on 20th July 2015

With reference to the chart below, the following signals generated by the B&W System were present, up to 9 minutes prior to Gold’s $ 50 crash on the 20th July 2015:

  • Note a B&W sell 1st signal and a B&W All Black sell signal at 0220 (GMT +1) 9 minutes before the crash.
  • A B&W All Black sell signal at 0224 (GMT +1) 5 minutes before the crash.
  • A B&W All Black sell signal at 0226 (GMT +1) 3 minutes before the crash.
  • At 0229 (GMT +1) Gold dropped $50 ( 500 ticks), in the space of 2 minutes

B&W signals Gold crash 20 7 2015

 

 

 

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

Predictor Trading Signals on Gold (8Tick Range Bar) 2 July 2015

Continuing the theme of recent Predictor trading signals, below is an 8 tick intra-day, range bar chart of Gold with the Predictor buy and sell zones and the Predictor buy and sell signals.

Applied to the chart is an auto-trader strategy trading both long and short Predictor signals from 25th June 2015 until and including, today 2 July 2015.

The strategy has :

stop loss rule : Exit on close above/ below  Swing High/Swing  Low prior to entry.

Trail Stop and

Target (50 ticks).

The strategy summary below the chart shows the Predictor  continues to be a  potent weapon in the trader’s arsenal .

Predictor 8T Gold 25 6 15 to 2 7 15 Predictor 8T Gold 25 6 15 to 2 7 15 summary

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.