Category Archives: Predictor charts long term

Update Predictor Trading Signal (daily) 28 July 2015

In the POST on 28th July 2015 I wrote:

Once again, It will be interesting to monitor these trade set-ups over the next few weeks/months and see if the entries are triggered and if so, how the trades pan out.

I was referring to the 5 Predictor buy/sell signals generated on MVG, ULTA, DBVT, COST and ANAC.

It is now almost 4 weeks since those signals were generated and this post is an update as to how the trades have panned out. As with previous posts I shall show 2 charts for each symbol.  the 1st chart is a copy of the original chart analysis and the 2nd chart is “Now” ie market close Friday 22nd August 2015.

2 charts for MVG

MVG Daily Predictor buy

MVG Up Daily Predictor buy

2 charts for ULTA

ULTA Daily Predictor sellULTA Up Daily Predictor sell

2 charts for DBVT

DVBT Daily Predictor sell

DVBT Up Daily Predictor sell

2 charts for COST

COST Daily Predictor sellCOST Up Daily Predictor sell

2 charts for ANAC

ANAC Daily Predictor sell

ANAC Up Daily Predictor sell

To summarize

Trades not triggered: MVG

Stopped out: DBVT Loss $0.97c ULTA Loss $2.89c 

Total Loss to date $ 3.86c

trades still running at a loss: none

Total  actual  loss = $3.86c

Those trades still running at a profit: COST up $7.00c ANAC up $33.00c.

Total running profit $40.00c

If all trades were closed out now, the net gain would be $36.14c( Exc fees)

 profit factor(PF) =$ win/$ loss = $40.00c/$3.86c = 10.33!!!!

given that profit factor only needs to be > 1.2 to have a winning system. The 10.33 PF shown by these 5 Predictor trades far exceeds that figure and shows what a powerful reversal  trading system the predictor signals produce. 

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

Update 2 Predictor Buy/Sell Signals 21 June 2015

In the POST on 28 July 2015 I wrote:

To summarize

Stopped out: FRED Loss $0.30c NWS Loss $0.47c CBK $0.13c 

Total Loss to date $ 0.90c

Those trades still running at a loss: BEBE down $0.06  ZQK down $0.14

Total running loss $0.20, so actual and running loss = $1.10c

Those trades still running at a profit: AGEN up $1.50c CMA up $6.00c.

Total running profit $7.50c

If all trades were closed out now, the net gain would be $6.40c( Exc fees)

 profit factor(PF) =$ win/$ loss = $7.50c/$1.10c = 6.82!!!!

Since writing the above, the 2 trades running at a loss, BEBE and ZQK have actually been stopped out for small losses.

The 2 trades running at a profit AGEN and CMA have continued to accumulate significant gains.

All 4 trades are shown below:-

BEBE Up1 Daily Predictor buy ZQK Up1 Daily Predictor buy

AGEN Up1 Daily Predictor sell CMA Up1 Daily Predictor sell

 

To summarize as of today 22 August 2015

Stopped out: FRED Loss $0.30c, NWS Loss $0.47c, CBK  loss $0.13c,   BEBE loss $0.14c, ZQK loss $0.18c.

Total Loss to date $1.22c

No trades running at a loss

Total  actual  loss = $1.22c

Those trades still running at a profit: AGEN up $2.70c, CMA up $19.36c.

Total running profit $22.07c

Despite the fact that 5 out of 7 trades got stopped out for small losses. The 2 successful trades have racked up terrific gains and have almost tripled the profit factor (PF) over the last month.

remember previously PF was 6.82  Now it is:

Profit Factor = $22.07/ $1.22 = 18.09 !!!!

The Predictor Trading system is an out and out reversal system that creates Signals in regions where price has reached extremes.

Because of this, stop losses can be set close to the entry price. This ensures losses will be small.

Yet,  targets can be set far away from the entry price allowing reward (profit) to be large.

reward to risk ratios (for Predictor Signals) are often well in excess of 6:1   (with a 6:1 r/r only 17% of trades need to be winners to be overall profitable.

With a 18:1 r/r (as demonstrated in the 7 trades covered) it requires only a 6% win rate to be overall profitable

The essence of trading is to conserve and increase your trading capital. The way to achieve this is, not to have a 90% win rate, but to ensure the profit you make on your winning trades, far exceeds the losses on your losing trades. The Predictor allows you to do just that.

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com

© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

Predictor Trading Signals (daily) 28 July 2015

The Predictor Trading System daily signal scan produced 20 Buy and 30 sell signals, today 28th July 2015.

below are a random selection of 5 of the trading instruments that have Predictor signals today. All the entry /stop/target and R/R information pertaining to the potential trades are shown on the charts.

Once again, It will be interesting to monitor these trade set-ups over the next few weeks/months and see if the entries are triggered and if so, how the trades pan out.

MVG Daily Predictor buy ULTA Daily Predictor sell DVBT Daily Predictor sell COST Daily Predictor sell ANAC Daily Predictor sell

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

Update Predictor Buy/Sell Signals from 21 June 2015

In the POST on 21 June 2015 I wrote:

“It will be interesting to monitor these trade set-ups over the next few weeks/months and see if the entries are triggered and if so, how the trades pan out.

It is now over a month since those Trading charts and signals were posted so now is an opportune moment to see what has transpired.

I will post the chart for each of the set-ups in the same sequence as they were in the 21st June 2015 post, then follow it  with the chart for today 28th July 2015,  beneath it. The comments on the 2nd of each chart show when the trades were triggered, If they have been stopped out and what the losses were. and for those trades not stopped out, what the gains would be as of today.

2 charts below for AGEN

AGEN Daily Predictor sell

AGEN Up Daily Predictor sell

 

2 charts below for FRED

FRED Daily Predictor sellFRED Up Daily Predictor sell

 

2 charts below for CMA

CMA Daily Predictor sell

CMA Up Daily Predictor sell

 

2 charts below for BEBE

 

BEBE Daily Predictor buyBEBE Up Daily Predictor buy

 

2 charts below for ZQK

ZQK Daily Predictor buy

ZQK Up Daily Predictor buy

 

2 charts below for NWS

NWS Daily Predictor buy

NWS Up Daily Predictor buy

 

2 charts below for CBK

CBK Daily Predictor buy

CBK Up Daily Predictor buy

 

To summarize

Stopped out: FRED Loss $0.30c NWS Loss $0.47c CBK $0.13c 

Total Loss to date $ 0.90c

those trades still running at a loss: BEBE down $0.06  ZQK down $0.14

Total running loss $0.20, so actual and running loss = $1.10c

Those trades still running at a profit: AGEN up $1.50c CMA up $6.00c.

Total running profit $7.50c

If all trades were closed out now, the net gain would be $6.40c( Exc fees)

 profit factor(PF) =$ win/$ loss = $7.50c/$1.10c = 6.82!!!!

given that profit factor only needs to be > 1.2 to have a winning system. The 6.82 PF shown by these 7 Predictor trades far exceeds that figure and shows what a powerful reversal  trading system the predictor signals produce. 

 

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

Hard Right Edge of Chart Trading using Predictor Buy/Sell Signals

To Understand how a strategy is going to work in the future it is  worthwhile to back-test and analyse how price has reacted  after  previous Predictor buy/sell signals. The expectation (hope) is that any obvious pattern of price behaviour after the signal will be repeated in the future.

There is, of course, no guarantee price will act in a similar manner in the future.

Looking at charts in hindsight  and seeing how the price reacts to a signal gives the impression that trading is easy , Trading the right edge of the chart ie a real time signal, is much harder, because the trader has no idea what price will do in the future. Knowledge of historical performance may give the trader an expectation of what could happen next, however, the reality is the only way to trade  real time Predictor signals  (or any signal) is to develop a strategy  that  defines and applies the variables the trader can control. There are 4 variables (the trader can control) called the 4 W’s

1) WHAT (markets/instrument to trade)

2) WHERE (to trade, (Entry Level , Exit levels (stops, targets))

3) WHEN (what time to trade or not to trade. time in trade, which time frames and cycles to utilise)

4) WAGER (how much to risk = Stop x position size)

Firstly the trader needs to find current  Predictor buy and sell signals.

For daily signals, (once the end of day data is downloaded), the software (if so programmed) will run automatic criteria scans ,to scan for daily Predictor buy and sell signals. The result of the scans are displayed on the  software Symbol Grid .  the screenshot below shows the results of the scan for Daily Predictor sell signals for yesterday the 19th June 2015Predictor scan symbol gridNote there are 25 symbols with Predictor sell signals. The 4 with ticks beside them are used as examples below.

Note all the  the signals are traded in the same manner.

Trade entry level can be: 

1) open of next bar after the signal or

2) a limit order which will trigger the entry after a pull-back in price. The examples shown utilise this pull back entry.

Stop Loss : is set at a  bar close above the Swing High or a bar close below the Swing Low prior to the signal.

Target 1: is normally a Gap fill or resistance/support level.

Target 2: is normally a major support/resistance level.

Target 3: is normally a runner where stop is brought to break-even and time and trend are left to their own devices.

Because the Predictor is a reversal signal the risk (stop loss) is small in comparison to the reward (Target 2) which is much larger.

The Reward/risk ratio varies from 5:1 up to 23:1 in the examples below.

This means the winning trades should be much larger than the losers.

AGEN Daily Predictor sell FRED Daily Predictor sell RLGT Daily Predictor sell CMA Daily Predictor sell

 Similarly there are 103 symbols with Predictor buy signals. Those with ticks beside them are used as examples below.

Predictor scan symbol grid2BEBE Daily Predictor buy ZQK Daily Predictor buy NWS Daily Predictor buy

NWS2 Daily Predictor buy

CBK Daily Predictor buy

 It will be interesting to monitor these trade set-ups over the next few weeks/months and see if the entries are triggered and if so, how the trades pan out.

Each new daily scan will throw up a basket of new symbols which have daily Predictor buy or sell signals, giving many, many additional trading opportunities.

 Scanning and alerts for Predictor intra-day  signals can be done on all time frames and bar types e.g. range, volume  and tick charts, via the software Quote board but that is the subject for another day.

 

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated
results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any,
of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of
hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in
trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options,
cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other
leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider
your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

 

Recent Predictor Signals

It is a while since the Predictor has been highlighted.

It is fair to say the Predictor keeps on producing buy and sell zones in advance of reversal points

and continues to produce buy or sell signals as the reversal takes place.

The charts below show the Predictor in action on different time frames/ bar types from weekly down to 500 Volume

Predictor weekly Gold Predictor 6 tick range  Gold Predictor Daily  Gold Predictor 500 Vol Nq Predictor 240 min Nq Predictor 240 min G6E Predictor 10 min G6J

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com © 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

 

Predictor Scans and B&W analysis

When End of Day data is downloaded the software will automatically carry out programmed scans for any criteria stipulated. The Predictor signals can be used as criteria scans on any symbol or symbol group on daily, weekly or monthly bars

Below is an example of such a scan for Predictor sell signals on weekly bars.

The results of this scan are very interesting, as a large number of weekly sell signals have triggered on several major market sectors. When that happens it often heralds the onset of a significant reversal.

The chart signal show is on $TXA1 which includes the luxury goods sector. This is often one of the first sectors to sell off in a reversal.
Predictor lux goods Weekly 16 8 13 copyTo see if this plethora of sell signals is significant from a technical analysis view-point the B&W  monthly, weekly and daily charts on the S&P 500 are utilised as shown below.

Monthly is still in an up-trendB&W Monthly SPX  18 8 2013 copy Weekly – potential transitioning into a down-trendB&W weekly SPX  18 8 2013 copy Daily – almost fully transitioned into down trendB&W daily SPX  18 8 2013 copy The presence of  weekly and daily bearish price action , momentum and divergence indicates  the beginning of a potential reversal. From a trading view-point  counter trend trades i.e. shorts can be considered.

The following charts are Predictor charts for the S&P 500 and DJIA  The 1st question is are they showing any Predictor sell signals on monthly or daily charts? The answer is no on monthly, yes recently on daily .

I have added  a red highlight bar to the charts to show  a Key Reversal Bar. This is a powerful candle reversal pattern which can appear when price makes a new all time high.

The S&P is showing a monthly KRB in the process of forming.

KRB S&P monthly copy The previous S&P daily KRB was 6 years agoKRB S&P Daily 2007 copyThere has been 2 daily KRB’s in the last 3 monthsKRB S&P Daily 2013 copyThe DOW is also showing a monthly KRB in the process of forming
KRB DJIA monthly copy The previous DOW daily KRB was also 6 years ago

KRB DJIA Daily 2007 copyThere was a daily KRB on the DOW on the 31st July 2013 KRB DJIA Daily copy

 Predictor sell signals are appearing on multiple sectors and indices, The B&W weekly and daily charts are turning bearish and producing sell signals.

Key Reversal Bars are starting to appear after a 6 year absence.

Major time cycles, as of June 2013, are now all pointing down.

Is this the end of the free money and buying frenzy of the last four and a half years? Is the smart money starting to remove profits before the fundamentals change? if so, this could be the start of a lengthy distribution phase prior to the demise of QE 3.

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.