Category Archives: B&W charts intraday

B&W Trades both long and short early Jan 2016

The B&W system has not been featured prominently over the past year. However, it continues to fire off winning trade entry signals on all markets, on all time frames.

The charts, trades and results below show the NQ traded on a 6 tick range bar chart:  both long and short using the B&W uptrend buy 1st and B&W downtrend sell 1st signals, from the start of the 2016 trading year 5th Jan 2016  until  21:00 Gmt on the 13th of January 2016.

Both long and short strategies were run separately but simultaneously, normally only one strategy would be in a position, however on occasions both strategies had active positions

One NQ futures contract was bought or sold on each trade entry. There was no pyramiding or optimisation of signal parameters , trade targets or stops.

Each trade ran until it is stopped out by a hard stop, a trailing stop or a profit target.

This was not a back test.

The trades were live/real time (sim acc) so slippage is accounted for in the trade entry and exit prices .

The 6 tick range chart below, shows examples of the long and short entry signals.

B&W NQ 6T signal explain

The summary below shows the results of simultaneous application of both long and short strategies.

B&W NQ 6T strategy results

 

Displaying image.pngThe 241 real time trades that produced these results are shown below.

B&W NQ 6T trades1B&W NQ 6T trades2B&W NQ 6T trades3B&W NQ 6T trades4B&W NQ 6T trades5

B&W NQ 6T trades6

 

B&W NQ 6T trades7

 

B&W NQ 6T trades8

 $5090 profit in 7 trading days is a very pleasing result, particularly when only one contract is being traded.

Each tick on the NQ is $5 so the results shown above equate to a gain of over 1018 ticks in 7 trading days.

This can be approximated  to a gain of over 145 tick per trading day.

In anyone’s book these results are more than acceptable, particularly if the trading account size allows trading of more than one contract.

Can these results be improved upon? The answer is yes.

How?

Simple analysis of the summary show : the results of the long trades below

B&W NQ 6T strategy results long

and the results of the short trades below.

B&W NQ 6T strategy results short

 

It is obvious, in hindsight, that  trading short only would have been more profitable. As the daily NQ chart below shows the rapid decline of the NQ at  the start of the 2016 trading year.

This was one of the most bearish starts to a trading year in many a year.

The catalyst for this rapid drop in the Nasdaq (and other stock markets) we are reliably informed, was  the Chinese stock markets massive sell off’s.  The sell off’s led to the Shanghai market closing limit down on several occasions during the 1st few  trading days of Jan 2016. 

B&W NQ daily

However, was it possible to predict that short would have been the way to trade?

the short answer is no: but the slightly longer answer is that you can tip the odds in your favour if you look at a longer term time-frame than the 6 tick range bar and use the longer term chart  as a means to control/filter your trade entries.

the chart below is a 60 min chart of the NQ. On this time frame  the B&W system went into a longer term down -trend at 15:00 Gmt on the 30 Dec 2015  and remained in that longer term down-trend until 10:00 Gmt on the 12th Jan 2016.

B&W NQ 6T 60 min bias

The crux of this observation is that the market  created a bias to the downside on the hourly chart.

Given that market bias, it is wise to only trade short. The short only summary, shown above, with profits of $5955 confirms that  had short only entries been taken the gains would have been greater. So the higher probability winning trade was short.  A long trade would be counter-trend.

At 10:00 on the 12th Jan 2016 the B&W 60 minute chart changed its bias to an up-trend, at which point the higher probability winning trade became a long.

below are 2 charts showing the change of 60 minute bias from down to up (on the left hand chart) on the 12th Jan 2016 and

the long only trade entry signals (turquoise vertical lines) on the right hand 12 tick range bar chart.

B&W NQ 6T 60 min bias with range bar entry

Conclusions:

Trading both long and short B&W up-trend 1st and down trend 1st strategies simultaneously, on a 6 tick range bar can be very lucrative.

Trading a B&W  down-trend 1st sell strategy  only,  on a 6 tick range chart, when the B&W 60 minute longer term trend is down can be even more lucrative.

and Vice versa, trading a B&W  up-trend 1st buy strategy  only, on a 6 tick range chart, when the B&W 60 minute longer trend is up can also be  more lucrative than trading both long and short simultaneously.

The 60 minute NQ up-trend was short-lived and reversed at 17:00 Gmt on the 13th Jan 2016 back into a down-trend, as shown in the chart below. Bias once again should revert to short only.

B&W NQ 6T 60 min bias2

and below are the potential short entry signals on a 12 tick range bar chart of the NQ.

The strategy has and is being run on a 6 tick range bar chart but the collapse of the NQ was so severe after 17:00 Gmt on the 13th Jan 2016  that the entire fall could not fit on one screenshot using a 6 tick range chart. Accordingly, there were considerably more potential short entry points on the 6 tick range chart than shown on the 12 tick range chart below. 

B&W NQ 6T 60 min bias3

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2016 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

 

 

Trading Signals from B&W Trading System prior to Gold Crash on 20th July 2015

With reference to the chart below, the following signals generated by the B&W System were present, up to 9 minutes prior to Gold’s $ 50 crash on the 20th July 2015:

  • Note a B&W sell 1st signal and a B&W All Black sell signal at 0220 (GMT +1) 9 minutes before the crash.
  • A B&W All Black sell signal at 0224 (GMT +1) 5 minutes before the crash.
  • A B&W All Black sell signal at 0226 (GMT +1) 3 minutes before the crash.
  • At 0229 (GMT +1) Gold dropped $50 ( 500 ticks), in the space of 2 minutes

B&W signals Gold crash 20 7 2015

 

 

 

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

B&W Signals, Today 22 June 2015, on Euro

 

B&W G6E 22 June 2015

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com © 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

 

 

B&W and the Oil Price Collapse 2014 and rebound 2015

blog1

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60 min summary

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www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013-2015 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.
www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2015 All rights reserved

B&W system as a High Frequency Trading system (HFT)

Below are 2 charts showing the B&W system being utilised as a HFT over a 2 day period from the 11th to 12th December 2013. Each chart shows a different auto trading system trading one NQ futures contract with entries based on both B&W buy1st and sell 1st signals with no regard to longer term trend .

Both strategies have the same hard stops but different Dynamic Targets. The first system target is based on volatility/momentum. The second system target is based on volatility and price action.

All trades were taken real time (sim acc) so slippage is included.

B&W 1st 6T NQ1 11-12-2013 B&W 1st 6T NQ2 11-12-2013

 

The performance summary is shown below.

B&W 1st 6T NQ1 11-12-2013 summary

The summary results are good, profit factor; winning%, payout ratio and CPC index are all very good and result in a profit of $1745.

These results would be fine for a large financial institution whose trading commissions and fees are virtually zero, so the 75 trades would cost them nothing to take. However the same is not the case for a retail trader whose round turn costs can be $5 per trade. So for a retail trader this style of trading will siphon well over 20% of the profits into the Broker’s coffers.

Whilst the B&W system can be used profitably by large financial firms, a better option for the retail trader would be to follow a (non HFT) strategy that reduces the number of trades and searches for larger profit targets.

An example is shown below. The chart shows the same time period 11th to 12th December 2013 but only takes a single trade, (2 contracts) producing trading costs of only $10. This single trade could have produced a better result than the HFT strategy discussed above.

The analysis, trade entry signal, trade management and exit signals are described on the chart.

B&W 1st 6T NQ3 11-12-2013

 

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com

© 2013 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result  you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

B&W long only on Nasdaq 8T range intraday 9-18 October 2013

The 5 year rally in US equities continues unabated with the S&P, Dow and Russell making new all time highs and the Nasdaq making 13 year highs. The last few weeks have seen the Russell and Nasdaq outperforming the S&P and Dow.

The charts below show the Black and White system (B&W) signals on the Nasdaq from the 9th October to the 18th October 2013 with a long bias

Using B&W buy 1st signal (on a 8 range bar chart) as an entry

With a target and Stop of 1:1 risk reward.

The first slide shows  trading signals on a single contract.

B&W NQ 8T single lot 9 to 18th Oct 2013

The second slide shows pyramiding multiple contracts (up to 10) still with a 1:1 risk to reward but with larger targets and stops

B&W NQ 8T multilot 9 to 18th Oct 2013

It is interesting to see what technical resistances the NQ faces in the immediate future.

The monthly NQ chart below, illustrates these resistances.

 Nq prognosis copy

Without doubt, on all timeframes, the up trend is firmly established. The B&W Monthly Weekly and Daily charts are all showing Green triangles and Green dot buy signals, however, the following technical levels have been reached

The price has reached a confluence of

1) Monthly resistance

2) 0.618 retrace of major crash

3) Upper Std Deviation (Blue lines) of a 5 year regression up channel.

Previous confluences like this have produced retracements of approx 1500 ticks(Green dashed lines)

a similar retracement now would target 2950 on the NQ.

There are also some significant Fibonacci price cluster levels at or above the current price of 3345:

Monthly 3382

Weekly 3370

Daily 3340

From a technical standpoint a correction is due. The fundamentals (Free money to the bankers to go spend in the sweetie shop) still remain unchanged. For 5 years the fundamentals have taken precedence. Will these strong resistance levels change that balance now?

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.

B&W intra-day examples of B&WOsc patterns

Below are several examples of B&W patterns leading to trade set-ups

The divergences occurred at what subsequently transpired to be the daily high and daily low

B&W examples of Patterns on B&WOsdc and Volume trend

 

 

www.tradingsystemsandsignals.com
© 2013 All rights reserved

CFTC Commission rule 4.41(b)(1)(i) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. IMPORTANT:  The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only “risk capital” should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and as a result you may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest or trade.